Let’s face it — it’s tough to find value at tight end in fantasy football. The high-volume, high-quality options tend to remain high in the rankings for several seasons in a row, while the dart-throw sleepers often bust. Sometimes, all you can hope for is finding a consistent TE who gives you something every week — or not overdrafting a tight end who’s a roller coaster ride every week. This article is aimed at helping you do both and should be added to your pre-draft cheat sheet.
My exclusive “Clutch Report” over at BigGuyFantasySports.com calculates a player’s “Clutch Factor” (level of consistency). This number is determined by several factors, including the number of teams in your league and the scoring format. A “Clutch Game” for a running back in a 12-team PPR league would be 11 points or more. A CF of more than 70 percent is typical for good players, while a CF of 80 or 90 put a player in the “great” category.
After looking at my results for TE, a few undervalued players that may not be ranked quite as highly in total fantasy points stand out (and vice/versa). In addition, a few overvalued players stand out because they lacked consistency. Factoring in last season’s consistency numbers with this year’s projections has my top-12 TEs a little different from the consensus, at least in the order they’re in.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2018 fantasy football cheat sheet
Fantasy Football Consistency Rankings: Tight ends
1. TE1A Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
2. TE1A Travis Kelce, Chiefs
3. TE1A Zach Ertz, Eagles
4. TE1B Jimmy Graham, Packers
5. TE1B Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
6. TE1B Delanie Walker, Titans
7. TE1B Evan Engram, Giants
8. TE1B Greg Olsen, Panthers
9. TE1B Jack Doyle, Colts
10. TE1B George Kittle, 49ers
11. TE1B Trey Burton, Bears
12. TE1B Jordan Reed, Redskins
Quarterback | Running back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200 | PPR
A designation of “TE1A” means I expect that player to earn a 70 percent or higher Clutch Rate this season. Only three players are currently ranked at that level. The remaining nine TEs are considered TE1Bs, which means I expect them to earn a Clutch Rate between 55 and 70 percent. Obviously, the higher ranked TE1Bs, such as Jimmy Graham and Kyle Rudolph, are expected to earn much higher than 55 percent but probably won’t exceed 70 percent. The lower ranked tight ends certainly could exceed the 55 percent CR, but the lower ranking means less probability. Jordan Reed is the exception that will probably earn over a 70 percent CR, but he can never stay healthy enough to be worth a pick as a TE1A.
MORE CONSISTENCY RATINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver
Let’s look at a couple of these tight ends and see which of them are undervalued or overvalued based on their current ADPs.
Undervalued: Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
Rudolph has earned back-to-back seasons of a 75-percent CR. His 75-percent rating is only slightly below Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz, who were closer to 80 percent. The big difference is Gronk, Kelce and Ertz have ADPs in the second and third round while Rudolph’s ADP is currently in the seventh round. That is undervalued, my friends!
Overvalued: Greg Olsen
Olsen has always been one of my favorite and most consistent tight ends. Last year, however, was a cause for concern. While injuries limited him to only seven games, it was the fact that in those seven games, Olsen only earned one clutch game! Yep, he was one for seven! Therefore, his ADP of TE4 in the fifth round makes him extremely overvalued in my mind. He won’t be on any of my teams in 2018.
MORE: Consistency reports at Big Guy Fantasy Sports
If you want more Consistency in your Draft Prep, you can buy the 2018 Fantasy Football Consistency Guide on Amazon or on the BigGuyFantasySports.com website.
In summary, consistency should be an important part of your fantasy draft prep every year. It’s great to draft players who earn a ton of total points, but if they don’t do it consistently, they may be stopping you from making the playoffs. And you can’t win a championship if you don’t make it into the playoffs!
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